.Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.

17-5-16

 

Panama leaks, Nawaz Sharif’s quagmire

Having effectively controlled Imran Khan while PPP in his pocket, Nawaz Sharif looked invincible in March when suddenly Hussain Nawaz acknowledged his property in London. Some considered it Hussain’s naiveté while those knowing the family well suspected something strange coming. A few days later it came out as Panama leaks and the open secrets of Nawaz’s dubious financial history lay out in the open. To control the damage to his reputation he addressed the nation but it didn’t work. Later he addressed again and it got worse. Yesterday he spoke in the parliament trying to diffuse the situation and made the situation even more indefensible quoting facts which he won’t be able to prove turning out to be complete lies, something outright suicidal. He is in a quagmire and must rethink his strategy as the old one isn’t working and neither he nor anyone else has unlimited time.

PM and his team has used nearly all the techniques available to a propagandist. He started with trivializing the matter making it look like Imran vs Nawaz, democracy vs martial law and not a corruption issue. Later he argued that others also indulged in financial irregularities but never gave any explanation himself. This was a strange strategy where he was incriminating himself as being in power for the last 8 years it was his duty to act against financial irregularities rather than indulge in shouting matches. This strategy effectively imparted an impression of a blackmailer who has practically confessed to his misdeeds. Trying to divert attention, creating a smoke screen and ad hominem etc. all failed. Since the days of strong support of Zia and Hamid Gul as CM Punjab bullying Pakistani PM, Nawaz has often boasted of being a front foot player suggesting that he plays aggressively. His cohorts attacked opponents viciously, the media and even national institutions (a bit subtly) but all these techniques working so well for the last 35 years not only stopped working but put him deep into the pit he was trying to come out of.

PM and his highly organized media team rightly argues that political office holders making offshore companies is not a crime, but neither is going to a bank wearing a face mask, but certainly very suspicious. Offshore companies are a known method of saving taxes by corporations/institution or expatriates but for individuals in public offices of 3^rd world it is nearly always to hide their ill-gotten wealth. The rule of thumb here is to treat offshore companies of rich rulers of poor 3^rd world countries highly suspiciously until proven otherwise.

Commissions are a way of gaining time and diffusing the issue in Pakistan. Nawaz has had exceptional luck whenever dealing with individuals particularly associated with judiciary which late BB called “Chamak”. Starting with the judgment against Tahir Qadri in late 80s to Nasim Hassan Shah’s judgement that was announced before the case started to the latest judicial commission on election irregularities, Nawaz was the beneficiary. Many call it management but I would refrain due to lack of credible evidence. However judicial commission has no place in this situation, it’s a political matter and decided politically. The accused should not appoint his judge nor should he have any place in determining its powers or TORs. Let’s face it the PM determines their privileges as that of the election commission. We have repeatedly seen its effects.

Over here contradictions between Nawaz, his wife, daughter, sons and allies’ statements are more than enough to convict him politically and he should be asked to resign. The only investigative commission needed here is to investigate any criminal misdoings that might take him to jail. Naturally, evidence needed for criminal conviction is always much stricter. No wonder Al Capone could only be convicted for tax evasion charges.

Democracy is important for the multiethnic and multicultural country like Pakistan. We have suffered a lot in the past due to military interventions and autocratic tendencies of our polity. Forgetting about Nawaz’s past democratic credentials which are very poor to say the least his current services aren’t desirable either. To begin with corruption itself and a barrage of allegations of corruption on elected officials is the worst enemy of democracy as it vilifies it and damages the trust between voters and politicians. Political parties where individuals are larger than the party wastes another cushion in democracies by making them ineffectual dealing with such crisis. In any country where democracy and corruption becomes synonymous, democracy can’t last long.

Now the situation is all follows.

Nawaz has confessed to his late father’s illegal money laundering. (in 70s taking $ out was a crime)

His sons have confessed owning Mayfair property since long.

His daughter has been proven to misstate as being property less.

His wife has given a different date of acquiring the property/

He has quoted facts in the parliament which he can’t substantiate. His use of an old picture as a proof of ownership of an industrial unit shows his extreme anxiety and distance from reality.

A pitiable situation indeed and worsening every passing moment.

During Imran Khan’s ill advised dharna Nawaz strangely didn’t concede an inch to his political rivals but offered everything to the military including the Indian initiative. Even now instead of taking moral high ground and resigning until cleared of allegations, he has started a mudslinging campaign against his political rivals further damaging the repute of politicians and thus democracy. Instead of a peaceful democratic change in parliament his confrontational attitude might be tempting many potential usurpers giving argument to those who think our democracy is not tenable. He is once again giving a message to his political rivals to accept him despite everything or he will ensure the demise of democracy in Pakistan, not a healthy approach.

Nawaz Sharif’s style of politics has worked exceptionally well for 35 years allowing him to get away with unbelievable situations where any of them could have politically ruined him. Provincialism, Changa manga, Johar town plots, physically manhandling the supreme court, taking money from agencies to name a few, instead of harming him got him PMship thrice and CMship of 60% of Pakistan innumerable times. Strangely after his phenomenal success nothing is working now, everything appears to be going wrong. Despite his team, resources and skill, PM is getting deeper in trouble and if he continues like this even his party N League, Pakistan’s biggest, might decimate. This is the way nature works, no one gets endless opportunities. Our president rightly said Panama issues has come from divine. Many opportunities have been squandered still there is time, although not much. PM must accept that his responsibilities are more than that of ordinary Pakistani requiring more scrutiny, he controls trillions of public money and not them. He should resign, inform the nation how he made this fortune, how he recently acquired expensive property controlled by Qatar and leave the decision to the people of Pakistan. Our people can be very forgiving and magnanimous. This time sincerity and honesty might win him elections.

Neither Nawaz Sharif nor Pakistan have many options or time left. Possibilities his confrontational strategy can lead us to are just too scary even to contemplate.

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Too much of a good thing

Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank

23-2-2016

“Too much of anything could destroy you, Simon thought. Too much darkness could kill, but too much light could blind.” Cassandra Clare, City of Lost Souls

Too much of anything is bad and vices are sometimes virtues carried to excess. It was due to this inherent risk that out Prophet SAW guided us for moderation (miana rawi) and we are obliged to follow it. Our media is always appreciating our army lavishly for everything it does like fight against terrorism, helping the nation in time of need, defending our borders, fighting corruption etc. but never criticizing it. In addition, TV dramas and feature movies are made to glorify our defense forces. These endeavors sometimes go too far and we see people calling for the army and its chief to interfere in unrelated matters too as a savior. We might be going too far in venerating our army and showing gratitude to the level of getting counterproductive.

Nation states need institutions that have high morale and are esteemed in the society so our constitution bars people from defaming or ridiculing military and judiciary. This clause was specially added in the 1973 constitution when our armed forces were having morale and image problems after the terrible loss of 1971 and this was how the authors of constitution tried to build its institution heavily financed and manned by its children.

In addition to freedom from attacks constitution guarantees, military has a very vibrant public relation department headed by no less than a Lt Gen and an undisclosed budget. This ISPR, aided with the enormous power of military reaching most aspects of society has done a great job and ultimately it has elevated the image of army reaching unrealistic levels. No wonder people are calling for the military chief for all their problem solving building a kind of personality cult. This trend must be corrected because it has become out of proportion and can have detrimental effects for many reasons.

The foremost reason for curtailing/controlling this unchecked trend of building military grandiosity is that it is inaccurate. Truth can never be reached by hearing one sided arguments as it is the other side that really creates the 3 dimensional picture. Making opinion by reading military’s achievements while effectively silencing criticism by constitutional force has the potential of being highly unbalanced, somewhat like democracy without opposition. Only a select few have the ability to see clearly keeping both sides in view and knowing the need of building its positive image. Just like we admired our soldiers for killing terrorists in army school but never questioned how they got in fully armed where ordinary civilians can’t?

An out of proportion image of an institution having supernatural powers creates unrealistic and unfair expectations in the minds of simple Pakistanis deeply stuck in host of problems. For the last many decades our opinion makers of suspect intellect have regularly inculcated an adverse habit of waiting for messiahs. This has harmed peoples sense of their own civic responsibilities and their self-image that they can control their destiny. No wonder why apathy is so prevalent in our society and everyone talks but hardly anyone acts. These illusions are not for the naiveté only as many military personal also develop them and get falsely convinced of their extraordinary strengths that they don’t possess.  At times it gets translated into misconception that anyone belonging to military is superior to the ordinary Pakistanis; hence coining of the dreaded term “bloody civilians”. It has the potential of creating a cleavage in the society and contempt for others, like colonial masters and the subjugated.

These unrealistic expectations ultimately culminate in call for the military to take over the civil governments as the civilians don’t enjoy the immunity against slander and malicious attacks. This has happened repeatedly in Pakistan. Unfortunately, many times the military chiefs also get carried away and out of good intentions, sure of their supernatural abilities, jump in and harm the nation. Interviews of ex-military rulers testify to this. Gen Musharraf repeatedly tells people asking him to take over as one of the reasons he was “compelled” to send the democratic government packing in 1999. These unrealistic expectations have the potential to seriously harm the nation as Pakistan just can’t afford another military adventure.

Pakistan has been harmed enormously by military adventurism and we will never be able to sufficiently quantify them. Nearly all ills we face today have roots attached to the previous military rules. To begin with, dismemberment of Pakistan, extremism, terrorism and corruption of society are direct consequences. Pakistan of pre Zia era was unbelievably peaceful and popular, politicians were simple and non-corrupt. Politicians of pre Martial days appear like saints when compared to current crop. Each stint of martial law deteriorated our polity until we reached where we are today where the whole society is thoroughly corrupted. We must apologize to great people like Suharwardi, Gormani  and many others for wrongly humiliating them and civil society’s inability to rein in its generals.

These generals once in power realize their shortcomings and lack of powerbase making them dependent on world powers known for their lack of scruples and callousness. This over dependence has repeatedly landed us in foreign wars where we play the cannon fodder losing lives, money while accumulating blames. The same world powers now uttered the most insulting remarks for the Pakistani nation when Kerry called army as the “greatest binding force”. In other words, his statement can be implied as Pakistan is a nation kept intact by brute force. Certainly not a very flattering commentary but unfortunately still we find many people cherishing this insult.

  

Everything in excess is opposed to nature and wrong, and this applies to Pakistan army’s image building also. Yes, I am talking of the army I love, I finance and I man with my finest sons. Our army is a part of our society and is as good or as bad as other institutions of Pakistan. Its unopposed and relentless image building at expense of national exchequer and society, must be controlled and put in right direction. We must devise a strategy to have a balance by differentiating between constructive criticism and defamation or ridicule. Then we must include the subject of dangers and evils of martial law and military intervention in politics, at all levels in military education and the need for the armed men to stick to their constitutional duties. If we fail to do this, we have the danger of once again falling in the pit we fell many times earlier. We will always find people inviting army in politics for whatever reason and none of them is worth a response but its compliance must be strictly guarded against.

Otherwise wait for more takeovers, blatant or subtle, and the future generations to pay the price.

Sugar Industry

Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@yahoo.com

Dr. Khan heads a Lahore based Think Tank

4-11-2002

The over protected Sugar Industry

We are regularly reminded by the All Pakistan Sugar Mills Association that the sugar industry in Pakistan is in dire trouble. They think that the poor quality and high price of sugar cane has harmed the industry which is on the brink of collapse. To make matters worse the government has imported large quantity of sugar reducing its price. This can have detrimental effects the national economy, as the industry will shut down harming the farmers and the already weak banks with billions invested in the industry. The government must act immediately and bail it out. APSMA recommends increase of the price of sugar, lowering of the price of sugar cane and heavy taxes on imported sugar as the necessary steps. In additions it recommends fixing the price of sugar at Rs. 40 per kg if the price of sugar cane is fixed at Rs. 60 per kg.

The farmers think that sugar mill owners are inefficient and are in a habit of making exorbitant profits with the help of a captive market. They do not want to pay the farmers and want to have it all.

Sugar is a major industry of the country with a substantial amount of its meager savings invested in it. This is an alarming situation and must be taken seriously as millions of lives are dependant on it. It requires a careful study of the situation, weighing all arguments rationally and taking appropriate steps immediately. This leads us to some very interesting findings.

Price of sugar in Pakistan is the highest in the world.

There were only two small sugar units in Pakistan in 1947. now the number has risen to 77 with an excess installed capacity of over 45%. Although we are the fifth largest producer of sugar in the world we are also the costliest. The world price of sugar is around R. 18 per kg as compared to Rs. 28 in Pakistan. The total production is over 3.5 million tons resulting in excess cost of Rs. 28 billion annually.

Sugar is very expensive in Pakistan. The price of sugar cane is high with the average sugar content of 8.64% as compared to the world average of 9.9%. The sugarcane produced in Sind is better than the cane produced in Punjab. With this recovery rate the cost of sugar cane for production of 1 kg of sugar bought at Rs. 40 per 40 kgs comes to Rs.11.57. With the current prices it leaves Rs. 16.43 per kg with the mill owners for expenses, taxes and profits. This fact leaves us with a very interesting but painful observation that even our cost of production minus cost of sugar cane is also the highest in the world. If the price of sugar cane is fixed at Rs. 60 per 40 kg and the price of sugar at Rs. 40 per kg, as demanded by the APSMA this will leave Rs. 23 per kg with the producers. This is much more than the cost and profits of the sugar mills of the world and would be unfair rather cruel to the consumers.

Associations determining purchase and selling price are illegal

Our constitution guarantees every citizen right to form associations. But our law like the US, the EU and probably all other countries of the world does not allow producers of the essential commodities to determine the buying and selling prices. This is cartelization; unfair trade practice and is considered a felony punishable by law. Here I would like the famous case of the CEO of American Airlines who forced to resign for just making a phone call to the CEO of its competitor, Braniff. He claimed that it was just a courtesy call and price fixing or anticompetitive behavior was not proved, the simple doubt of such behavior was sufficient for his disgraceful exit. Interestingly the same owners who form associations and openly fix the buying and selling prices do not allow their employees to do the same and form unions. Recently the top officials of DeBeers, GE and Hoffman LaRoche were tried and punished by law but our sugar mill owners have been able to evade this law.

This behavior is against the law and must be discouraged. We may put a condition that the members of such associations should allow their workers to form trade unions. This will encourage competition resulting in increased efficiency and productivity. Nobody, no matter how resourceful should be allowed to openly break the law.

Local banks are hostages to the Sugar cartel

The government is regularly threatened that if demands of APSMA are not met they will default on the bank loans. I am not sure how this notion was conceived that the borrower has the right to unilaterally decide when to default on loan payments. It also leaves the impression that the borrower is not obliged to return the loan and is doing some kind of favor doing so. No where in the world is such behavior acceptable. Legally the borrowers take the responsibility to return the loan with interest in the stipulated period. This behavior is giving the message that because we have borrowed a lot from you and if we delay returning it, you will be in trouble, borders on blackmailing. This has effectively made banks hostage to industrial associations. We must keep in mind the money involved here belongs to the poor people of Pakistan.

Unfortunately because of our wrong policies and parochial interests we financed lots of big projects at the cost of small and medium enterprises and later got in the habit of bailing them out regularly. Our national savings rate is one of the lowest in the world leaving us with very limited resources to invest. This little should have been made to perform the most and directed towards productive projects but we made it nearly impossible for the small but competitive businesses to get any finances from the banks causing lot of harm to the national economy.

It must be made clear that hostage taking and blackmailing is unacceptable. The loan has to be repaid and for that the industry run efficiently otherwise the sponsors should be held personally responsible, as written in the contracts. This law must be implemented if the economy is to be improved. Allowing the borrowers to default at will, can ruin any economy.

Uncontested use of the mass media

The sugar cartel by forming association and charging high prices has lots of resources at its hands and uses them for its interests. For the last many years, expensive eye catching ads by them for some kind of government support has become a routine. A couple of years back when due to certain reasons the world price of sugar increased above the local price they forgot the local market and forced the government to let them export. The very next year the excess production was exported to a hostile country with a hefty subsidy. Every time it needs just a few expensive ads in the mass media to reap great monetary benefits. Interestingly either there is no institution to counter these campaigns or lacks resources to do it. Consumer groups should contest these but our consumers have no protection of any kind, as there are hardly any organized, resourceful consumer groups. The other group capable of challenging these campaigns is the farmer’s but it is weak and lacks cohesion. The farmers are short of liquidity and cannot afford to challenge the enormous power of APSMA which on the other hand has resources to employ a full fledge team of professionals that keep a close liaison with the opinion and decision makers.

Consumer organizations with the state support are badly needed. They are the only organs that can keep the balance and check the producers charging exorbitant prices and making big profits undeservingly.

Pakistan has over 45% excess sugar producing capacity

Here the situation is even stranger. We have been repeatedly informed about the weak financial health of the sugar industry and its lack of profitability; rather losses, but strangely new sugar mills mushroomed mostly by the same sponsors. I have failed to understand why some companies are so fond of losses that they work hard to increase them. With only two small units in 1947, we have 77 today, 29 in the last decade at an exponential cost. With the installed capacity of 10,000 metric tons we have increased the capacity to millions of tons. There is no known method of making an industry viable, lest profitable having over 45% excess capacity and not being able to compete in the export market because of much higher cost of production.

This simple mushrooming of the sugar industry by very influential and resourceful people suggests that the poor health of the industry may be an exaggeration to say the least.

Competition the essence of free market is absent in our sugar industry

We are living in the times of free market. Recent history taught us that planned economy and nationalized industry breeds inefficiency and produces flab that is detrimental to the health of the industry and the economy. The way out recommended is that the industry should be managed by the private sector competing with each other and responding to the market demands increasing efficiency and productivity. The catchword here is competition, the essence of free market economy.

When the producers sit together and ensure profitability for everyone, they are acting against the interests of the consumers and the ultimate  health of the industry as a whole. This leads to inefficiency and wastage. It is not surprising that hardly any sugar mill has changed hands, something so important to the concept of free market. This has resulted in lack of motivation and need to improve productivity producing even more flab and wastage of resources.

At times limited support may be temporarily needed

Still at times protection of the local industry may be from foreign competition. The Japanese protected their industry at times and even the leader US protected its industry from competition temporarily in the name of “retooling”. When done carefully and judiciously, it can yield good results. But there is no known case where the industry has not competed within itself, formed cartels and achieved good health, something we are doing here.

Even protection from the foreign producers must be temporary with clearly spelt time frame and gradually it should be removed. The industry demanding protection must spell out how it plans to improve productivity and make itself competitive. Unfortunately we have been rendering unlimited protection against local and foreign competition. This has made our sugar industry uncompetitive and a drain on the already weak economy. We must stop it.

Sugar industry must stop looking at Govt. for bail outs

It seems APSMA has gotten a misconceived notion that it is the responsibility of the government to bail it out and ensure profitability. For some reasons they have been successful in this campaign with the help of a few well placed expensive ads causing grave harm to the health of the industry and the national economy.

Nowhere in the world the governments have been able to do it neither can the poor Pakistani government achieve it. The responsibility to make the industry competitive lies with the people running it by increasing its productivity and cutting costs. It is absolutely against the word and spirit of the free market concept. If competitiveness is not required, then what is the need of having industry in private hands? With captive markets and exaggerated prices, even the state owned industries could be made profitable.

In this scenario with cartelization of an industry of a basic food item fixing prices we have gotten the worst of both worlds. High prices the state owned industries deliver with the inequality, the free market causes. Rather than supporting the industry in incompetent hands the state may do it itself.

Convergence of economic and political power

Looking at the list of the owners of our sugar mills one finds that there are a few families who own a substantial chunk of the industry. Leaving apart a few old business families, most of them have been part of the previous governments. This may be because due to exorbitant prices this industry was so profitable that successful governments doled out sugar mills as political favors. Both political sides are equally involved in it. The Zardaris, Chaudhries, Mians and Shariffs control more than substantial part of the sugar industry. This happened in the 14 years of civil rule between 1985-99 when political corruption prevailed. Probably this was the reason why APSMA enjoys such unparalleled political clout. This also explains the generous subsidies and terms were repeatedly given to the sugar mills owners. This has led to stories of lavishness of the sugar mill owners not much different from the stories of the Arab Sheikhs with many of them owning lavish cars and aero planes in a poor country like ours.

This concentration of economic and political power in the hands of a few led to a host of other problems. Because they enjoy a lot of economic clout over the local farmers this gets converted into votes with a little coercion. Political power is used to increase the personal wealth which in turns further increases political power ultimately resulting in grave social in equalities and unhealthy concentration of wealth and influence. This concentration in a few unscrupulous hands leads to blackmailing of the banks, governments, consumers and the farmers.

Limited supply of water

We have limited supply of water and it is worsening. Intellectuals tell us that the future wars will be fought over water not land, and we are already witnessing differences over the use of water between provinces causing serious misunderstandings. Because of different geographical factors precipitation over Pakistan has gone down resulting in reduced supply of water for agricultural purposes. Building more dams to store water and using the water judiciously in the most productive manner can solve this problem. We cannot build more dams because we cannot risk annoying the small provinces but we can certainly use the available water more productively

The sugar cane crop needs 3-4 times more water than cotton, which is sowed at the same time. Our cost of production of cotton is less than the world price. Using the water so generously to support sugar mills in the cotton belt, we can irrigate and develop much more wasted land. The potential cotton crop that we can substitute with sugar cane would be worth many times the price in the world market and that also in hard currency.

Industry must improve productivity and produce bye products

It is about time APSMA stops looking for the government support and starts working hard and improve its productivity, something badly neglected so far. In the rest of the world, valuable by products play a substantial role in making the industry productive. Molasses can be used for making industrial alcohol and the residue can and should be used to make building material instead of burning, as is the routine here. Substantial amount of theft occurring at the time of purchase by the mill employees should not be hard to eliminate.

All over the world sugar mills invest a lot in research and constantly develop new and improved seeds, something we again fail to do. Educating and supporting the local farmers is beneficial to the mills and should be invested in, but over here a kind of hostility exists between them. APSMA is also partially responsible for the poor quality of the sugarcane crop. Despite its resources it has not setup any research institutions of any stature or given any scholarships.

These are just a few steps that are practiced in the world but ignored here that can help the ailing sugar industry.

Conclusions

Hence we see that facts and reasons paint a picture different from the scenario painted by the APSMA. It is over protected, cartelized, heavily financed and inefficient using lots of resources of the state. Actually it is reducing rather than producing value. It is artificially kept alive with the state support at the expense of the poor tax payers and the consumers. This policy of wrong pricing causes wrong allocation of resources and further damages the economy. The major cause of this inefficiency is cartel formation and lack of competition, which must be taken care of for the sake of the industry and the national economy. In our present system the mill owners have absolutely no incentive to increase efficiency. We must make the industry compete within itself and gradually make it competitive in the international market. The cost would be more than recovered by the increased cotton production. Let the sugar mills increase their efficiency or get into more efficient hands using the limited national resources in the most productive manner. Price fixing must be abolished and the government should not allow uncompetitive practices.

If members of APSMA work as hard of increasing efficiency as they work on influence peddling and cartelizing, they can become much more competitive. Industries should help and support the economies rather than being a burden as our sugar industry is. It is ironic that we are spending more on supporting our sugar industry than on education and health. Does this make any sense?

Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.

28-12-14

 

Military Courts and fight against terror

"Terrorism is how the poor wage war. War is how the rich wage terrorism."
- Peter Ustinov

Pakistan was shocked by the massacre of school children in Peshawar. This shock turned into rage within no time imparting a compulsive need to respond to this atrocity effectively. In no time, the moratorium on death penalty was removed resulting in the hangings of convicts within days, as well as numerous bombing raids carried out in Waziristan. The army chief went to Afghanistan asking for the terrorist commanders based there and the politicians sat together to devise an action plan. All this was fine but then we heard about the decision to establish military courts for the terror cases headed by serving military officers, kind of a judicial “nazria-e-zaroorat” or doctrine of necessity.  

Military courts have a sad history in Pakistan, having been established by all military governments of the past (except Musharraf), along with many political governments, including Bhutto’s and PML(N)’s. They have never resulted in anything good, creating lots of complications instead, complications which lasted for years and gave way to new problems. The lesson learnt by the history of military courts tell us that the doctrine of necessity or ignoring law for exigency has always caused more harm than benefit and must be avoided.

Pakistan has seen this kind of national consensus and mobilization before, consensus which got wasted by diversions. Hanging convicts hastily and bombing targets, which were earlier not considered important enough, might be needed but are superficial and temporary steps which cannot be a substitute for the solid far reaching actions needed badly. I fear that concrete steps against real ills causing this terrorism might get ignored because of these cathartic moves aimed more at cooling down, or rather, appeasing national rage than addressing actual issues.

Establishment of military courts is a “no confidence” move against judiciary and might be bordering on outright insult. Our judiciary, like all other institutions might be lacking but handing over its duties to another institution is not the answer. If there are weaknesses in our judiciary, these should be identified and corrected. We can criticize but must never insult or humiliate them. It is the institutions that make and strengthen a state and judiciary is one of the most important. Judges are trained to interpret the law and decide about the criminality whereas the army officers are not. Military courts headed by best officers might get convictions but can never dispense justice. One wrong conviction can put the nation back a long way, seriously damaging the credibility of criminal justice system and nation as a whole.

                                                    

We must never succumb to the temptation to overlook the due process of law for our conveniences. We must never forget that an accused is an accused until proven guilty and must not give in to feelings of rage and retribution even with terrorists. It is respect for law that differentiates the civilized from the barbarians; the terrorists from the patriots. Ignoring the due process of law takes away our moral superiority, something we cannot afford, and by establishing military courts, we run the risk of jeopardizing this morality.

Instead of establishing military courts we should further develop, strengthen and protect our judiciary. It is the state’s responsibility to give proper protection to the judges, prosecutors and witnesses, a responsibility it hasn’t been fulfilling. When it comes to determining convictions, training of the police in scientific methods of investigation is also an important step; again, one that is not being taken.

Once the immediate threats are addressed, we must tackle the real issues; issues that began as mild forms of militarism and extremism and spiraled into rampant militancy and ended as outright terrorism.

Militarism can be defined as “domination of the military man over the civilian, an undue preponderance of military demands, an emphasis on military considerations” or “exaltation of military virtues and ideals” or “the tendency to regard military efficiency as the supreme ideal of the state and to subordinate all other interests to those of the military” or better still, “strong influence of military on government: a high level of influence by military personnel and ideals in the government or policies of a country or state.”

By this definition, we have been developing unbelievable and unsustainable levels of militarism, gradually sliding down to our present pathetic situation.

For this let us explore its genesis.

An unrepresentative military government abrogated the constitution, got us into a foreign war and encouraged non-state armed groups. All this was done while military courts were functioning and debate was strictly forbidden. Yes I am referring to the dark decade of the Zia-ul-Haq era, the military dictator who punished freedom of speech, and got us entangled into the mess of the Afghan war. Ultimately our society developed in a strange militarist way where bombs and missiles were idolized and displayed in the public domain of cities. Public schools had tanks and cannon as decorations; something absolutely unheard of. Talk of arms and bombs became popular along with geopolitics and wars in the educated middle classes. Extremists groups were armed and trained and then released into different war theaters. The stage was being set for the catastrophe that we are now facing.  Anyone daring to disagree or mentioning the risks involved was slapped down and marginalized; labeled as “unpatriotic”.

This policy effectively ended the state’s monopoly over use of force, weakening it tremendously. Lavish supply of dollars and arms produced a crop of megalomaniacs harboring dreams of conquering other countries and treating them as strategic depth for Pakistan. Thousands of armed, trained extremists were treated as strategic assets to be used as a tool, imparting dignity to these undisciplined armed groups and thus, legitimizing their “jihad”. These armed groups that we created, have now turned their backs on us; and what we gladly accepted as jihad against foreign and Godless agents in the past, has now become a very real terrorist reality against us.

Now we have no option but to accept that our militaristic paradigm has failed miserably. It has caused us lot of harm without any dividends. This militaristic frame of mind has made our lovely Pakistan into a pariah state known for all the wrong reasons.

Hanging or killing extremist militants is not the answer, as they themselves are looking for death. Indiscriminate bombings is not the answer either, because each innocent life lost in collateral damage can create many more desperate fighters willing to lay down their lives. We must change the mindset and thinking pattern of our people and the terrorists by giving them a plausible narrative they can understand. Fatwas against terrorism by religious scholars, enlightened curricula of the madaris and our adherence to law can go a long way in winning this battle.

Punishments or negative reinforcements certainly have a role to play but they should only be dispensed after due process of law. A criminal should be punished not to fulfill the desire for vengeance or rage of a person or institution but only for deterrence and if the law says so and military courts can’t be very helpful here.

Discussions of good and bad Taaliban must stop and we must dismantle even compliant extremist organizations arranging for their rehabilitation, as well as parties broadcasting a similar extremist mindset. Unfortunately, despite the recent uproar against the terrorists, this point needs more attention.

Pakistan has to fight the root cause of this problem, which is, militarism of society. This fight will be helped by strengthening of political and civil institutions like the parliament, judiciary, executive and political parties. We must also encourage debate and reign in our propensity to be the frontline state making money in the process. Military courts can be detrimental in all these endeavors. I just cannot understand how and why did Nawaz Sharif and all other political parties agreed to them.

There is still time for action. The proposal of military courts must be rejected. These can only be established by a constitutional amendment and the parliament must discuss all aspects of this situation, including the existing and historical risks and benefits. Judiciary can always strike it down even if the parliament is coerced into agreeing, as it is against the very spirit of our constitution, as well as the principles of democracy. Parliament should also avoid making more laws as we are already over regulated. The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws. We don’t need more laws but the implementation of the laws already in place.

Our most important and valuable (newfound) asset, the civil society, must resist these trials against democracy and justice. We are a civilized nation and have the ability to develop civil institutions, including an independent and assertive judiciary. Let’s protect our judiciary and give it a chance to rise to the occasion in our fight against terrorism.

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Sovereignty and honor of Pakistan

Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@hotmail.com

Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.

26-11-13

 

 

Sovereignty of Pakistan

 

American drone bombings apart from killing thousands of Pakistanis has divided the society. The recent missile attack on the settled area of Hangu has further deepened this cleavage. On one had there is a segment of society that approves of drone strategy and believes and preaches that smart bombs cleverly differentiates between the good and the bad before killing. They also argue that the terrorists have killed tens of thousands so a few hundred or thousand more innocent deaths are justified especially if we are getting money from the US. This segment of society is more vocal belonging to the upper strata at times accused of collaborating with the killers for personal benefits. The other group opposed to these killing by drones blaming it for loss of innocent lives and sovereignty of Pakistan. They get labeled as extremists, Taliban apologists and at times “Ghairat Brigade” suggesting that they are looking for national honor that is absolutely impractical for a poor country like Pakistan.

 

In an interdependent modern world nations don’t enjoy absolute sovereignty like a few centuries back. Still there are acceptable and unacceptable limits whose boundaries at times get blurred. Aerial attacks in another country with missiles causing human loss is considered absolutely unacceptable in any serious setup and society. Surprisingly still there are more drone justifiers in Pakistan, its chief victim, than any other place.

 

The strong legal position leaves many options for Pakistan like going to the UN and the International Court of Justice with a decent chance of winning.  It doesn’t resort to these measures despite making lots of empty noises due to two reasons. 1. Pakistan’s record in fighting terrorism has at times been questionable and 2. Its economy is on life support, extremely feeble needing constant foreign help or may I say alms to survive.

 

This pathetic situation has made Pakistan the most abused and maligned helpless punching bag of the super powers. It gets its people killed from all sides, suffers a damaged economy due to wars and then gets blamed for everything. Inability to protest against them makes it even more pitiful.

 

Now it absolutely clear that the biggest threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty doesn’t come from any foreign intrigues or maneuverings but our own self-destructory behavior and habits. Let us see  

 

Our habit of getting in other’s wars acting like hired guns along with our megalomaniac ideas of strategic depth and conquests despite a wretched economy has really harmed our people. This deviated thinking has brought bad name to Pakistan and has nearly left us isolated in the world with no friends. This erratic policy and state of mind has caused great harm to our sovereignty and honor and must stop. We don’t need to conquer other countries or influence them instead focus on improving the lot of our people.

 

The other main threat to our national sovereignty is a weak economy which basically depends on the balance of income and expenditures. Anything that worsens this balance is a culprit affecting our sovereignty and honor. Let’s try to identify the biggest villains here,

 

Tax evasion lowers the national income and is rampant here.. The richer a person the less he pays the taxes. Tax in a modern state is a duty and not an optional philanthropy. The country and its people, particularly its poor need and deserve it. Unscrupulous tax evasion is a very serious crime in the world not very far from other heinous crimes. Our top politicians and businessmen working hard to show their opulence and wealth somehow behave oppositely while paying their dues. Surprisingly some very prominent politicians still get votes from the poor despite all too obvious deviances in fulfilling their national duties by paying taxes. Going through the tax returns of some very prominent politicians and businessmen whose lifestyle would be difficult for Bill Gates to emulate, one finds them extremely poor on papers but practically filthy rich.

 

Corrupt tax collecting practices are rampant causing terrible losses to national exchequer. Many FBR officials themselves discourage people to pay taxes at times punishing them for it. They are more interested in the cut for themselves personally rather than collecting revenue for the state. The lavish life style of tax department officials has been all too apparent for quite some time. This might have been a major factor in bringing down the national tax revenues gradually to the extent where we are now making us the least taxed nation. According to the most estimates people are taxed but this revenue doesn’t reach the national treasury.

 

Our government and its expenditures have simply gotten out of hand. Government jobs have become aplenty and most sought after because of lavish salaries and perks along with opportunities of corruption. For the work a single person does in the private sector ten people are employed in the public sector still unable to complete their assignments. Repeated governments loaded government departments and organizations with their cronies for years making them too over employed and inefficient. These people are extremely pampered but having nothing to do spend most of their time doing negative things as nuisances created fetch benefits in the form of bribes by the hapless people.

 

PIA, Steel Mill, Railways and all government departments and offices have become a drain on the national exchequer. Over Rs 500 billion is spent every year just to keep them afloat. They need to increase their efficiency and big cuts in their payrolls to make them viable. Instead of earning revenues, these have become grave burden on the state and its people needing regular cash infusions and Pakistan has to beg other countries for this cash they squander.

 

The generosity shown by many government officials on state resources showing absolute disregard for discipline is another reason for our financial troubles. Outside of all schools and markets we see flashy government cars and fuel being misused. Expenses incurred on PM and President House, bureaucracy and military has gone beyond all limits. Despite asking for repeated sacrifices from our people the governments never tighten their own belts bringing us to this state of affairs. Unnecessary foreign trips wasting resources is another major source of waste along with many other ways.

 

 

Corruption in the government has touched new heights since successive governments learnt new ways of selling the future generations with impunity. They realized the power of their signatures while negotiating sovereign loans and contracts and used these ruthlessly to enrich themselves. IPPs, rental powers, railways engines to name a few, made many politicians and bureaucrats rich at the expense of our future generations and we are still condemned to pay for their unscrupulous and corrupt practices. Some of the worst offenders are no more but known by very respectable titles like shaheeds.  

 

So we see that any business man who doesn’t pay taxes, contractor that overcharges the govt, officials who misuse electricity or cars paid by the government are actually compromising the national sovereignty and honor of Pakistan not unlike Mir Jaffar and Mir Qasim’s of yesteryears. Their unscrupulous actions have tied the hands of our government giving an opportunity to the American officials with threats to Pakistanis with cutting aid for protests against drone killings. They want us to keep on getting our people killed with a smiling face. Not a very desirable situation.

 

Se we see that financial corruption and irregularities compromises national sovereignty in addition to robbing the poor or haqooqulibad which is unpardonable in Islam. If we are sensitive or serious about our national sovereignty and prestige we must, treat financial crimes not as civil matters but something much more serious like high treason with the punishment these deserve. Many sociologists feel that the mother of Pakistani problems is its moral collapse where illicit gains have stopped carrying a stigma weakening the foundations of all institutions and the society. Financial immorality has become totally acceptable despite the heavy cost it incurs to Pakistan and its people. These severe punishments would be more appropriate and help the moral abyss we have gotten ourselves into. We have several examples in today’s world where self respecting nations give capital punishments to such unscrupulous people.

 

Sovereignty, honor and dignity doesn’t come easy nor can it be begged. We must fulfill our role to bring our society and country in the league of respectable and dignified nations. We have to rid our society and government of inefficiency, wastage of resources and corruption that has brought Pakistan and its people on their knees. Beggars aren’t choosers nor are they considered respectable anywhere in the world. We have to come out of this rut and break the begging bowl. We have to protect the national coffers being brutally looted by those with the responsibility to protect and use it. If we cant, or don’t want to discharge our duties we loose our right to demand respect of all kinds. We will effectively lose not only our right to life but also right to protest against massacres of Pakistanis which would be uttermost height of helplessness.

 

khanmomar@hotmail.com

 

 

 

Dr. Umar Khan

khanmomar@hotmail.com

5-6-13

 

 

Recounting and thumb impression audit for clarification of electoral doubts

 

 

The recently concluded elections are probably the most controversial in the history of Pakistan including the notorious 1977 elections which paved the way for Zia’s martial law. PTI started questioning fairness of these elections and was soon joined by MQM, PPP, JUI, JI and even PML(N) in certain seats. This development has seriously affected the standing of results making all this exercise less credible.  Luckily NADRA came for rescue and offered to arrange a recount in the questionable constituencies along with thumb impression audit for a little expense which appellants can be made to pay. Nawaz Sharif and PML(N) being the biggest winner have the most at stake and if clean as they claim, should have jumped at this opportunity to come out as just winners and expose the bad losers. Election commission can also improve its credibility and integrity through this exercise as some appear to be questioning viciously. Surprisingly none of them is interested in using technology to clear doubts hovering on these election results.

 

I was surprised and flabbergasted as to why winners who are victims of aspersions on these elections aren’t keen to come out clean and expose the culprits or the naggers.

 

If recount of the polls with thumb impression audit is done with the help of new technology either the winners of elections will come out clean or in other case bogus polling will be exposed. These supposed inconsistencies might not have affected the results. Once bogus polling is exposed, then with the help of same NADRA we will be obliged to question the persons whose thumb impressions were repeatedly used for bogus voting. The presiding officers and other polling staff who let this happen will also be needed for questioning. Naturally these officials can’t indulge in such dishonesty without any coercion which might expose their high powered backers. These in turn can ultimately expose  the forces behind this exercise.

 

Elections determine who assumes and exercises power, so naturally many try to influence its outcome. State apparatus in Pakistan didn’t want to lose their grip on power after partition and wasted 24 years before holding the first general elections. Establishment tried to manipulate the results of the first elections held in 1971 but did it very awkwardly failing miserably. Ultimately establishment’s failure to accept the popular verdict in 1971 broke the country into two but the lust to influence election results didn’t diminish.

 

After the sudden death of Gen Zia in 1988, establishment was forced into a situation where its nemesis PPP led by BB appeared to be clearly winning the elections. Establishment considered PPP as a security risk secretly proclaimed stopping the PPP and BB from coming to power a matter of national interest and worked hard to block their path. An unknown businessman from Lahore who was working as CM Punjab, on the insistence of some Generals was picked as BBs challenger and all resources were used to make him a political leader of standing that could challenge the popularity of PPP and BB. All facilities were made available to him including the deep connections of the establishment with the media.  Strange indecent slogans were devised and even inter provincial feelings were aroused and used. PPPs imminent clear majority was blocked.

 

All this might have been unfair but even more negative elements were put into play. New ways of scientific election rigging were devised by the disciplined agencies with the help of bogus voting lists and taught to their protégés in politics. The political class associated with the establishment was led by no other than Nawaz Sharif who turned out to be a good student and learned all these unfair techniques well. Supreme Court judgment in Asghar Khan’s case exposes this unholy nexus very clearly. No wonder in Punjab only the old experienced horses won seats leaving the inexperienced shocked. Even PTI only won the seats of oft criticized new entrant turncoats in Punjab.

 

What this resulted in was that we knew the winners before elections quite accurately in the 90s. I still remember PPPs stalwart Aitzaz Ahsan saying publicly on the stage in 1993 elections that those who ousted Nawaz won’t let him back, so vote for me. The same trend continued in 2002 elections where Musharraf’s supporters were to win, and they did. 2008 elections might have been a bit of aberrancy due to BBs replacement with Zardari but the trend continued.

 

Before the 2013 elections the decisions were apparently made and their implementation was a forgone conclusion. Nawaz was openly meeting the representatives of foreign powers of all types being treated as a dignitary, while all surveys were predicting his return to power. Surveys and their effect on election results at times appear like the chicken and egg scenario, not knowing which came first, do the surveys influence the popularity or otherwise.

 

Local power brokers also show their worth in front of international players by influencing the election results or may I say ensuring victories for the desirable and defeat for the undesirable.

 

A quick look at the election results and much is cleared. The COD and its backers must be delighted as it was followed religiously with centre changing hands while Punjab staying with PML(N) and Sind with PPP. New spoilers like PTI are effectively marginalized.

 

So we see that there appears to be a list of well entrenched forces interested in keeping the current election mechanism where they can influence the outcome. Unfortunately in this setup factors other than the voters have final say in the outcome of elections.

 

Lack of trust on the electoral process caused by questionable elections breeds apathy among the electorate with a feeling of helplessness that nothing can change. The recent elections were different because electorate got really charged up which has now converted to a feeling of resignation with a hidden rage boiling down the surface waiting to rip open. We must not let it happen. A disinterested public in a country facing massive problems like Pakistan is not a good omen; let’s not hurt their belief in democracy and rule of law.

 

Unfortunately due to all these discrepancies and allegations our elections have attained the credibility not far from Iraqi or Afghan elections. We certainly deserve better. After all we are not occupied.

 

Democracy should be felt and seen too. Ideally there should be a recount with thumb verification of all the doubtful seats to clear all qualms. However if all this isn’t possible then maybe electronic voting in future is the answer. If third world countries like India and Philippines can use it so effectively so can we. We can start by having electronic voting in bye elections scheduled in the near future. After all we have ATMs in every nook and corner distributing BISP payments to the poorest making us well placed to convert to electronic voting.  This way we can effectively get rid of paper votes, boxes and the enormous staff which creates confusion and doubt. Democracy is important for Pakistan and we must strengthen it by all means possible and removal of doubts is one of them. Pakistanis have shown their trust in democracy and it must be valued and not allowed to ruin. People disenchanted with democracy can end up with worse options.

 

 

khanmomar@hotmail.com

 

 

Political awareness in Pakistan and PTI

Dr. Omar Khan, khanmomar@hotmail.com

25-4-13

 

Political awareness; and PTI

Out of many harmful legacies of 11 years long Zia era non party elections of 1985 were probably the most damaging. His declared motive was to help pious people get elected but actually he wanted to break the power of politicians, political parties and political institutions. This created a political class which wasn’t associated with any party or had any political stand on economy, foreign policy or anything and focused on small matters Zia and his coterie weren’t interested in. Local problems like streets and sewer along with divisive factors like Baraderie and sect gained in importance. Moneyed people and businessmen jumped in the empty playing field and invested heavily bribing voters who understood the futility of these elections and decided to grab whatever was offered. To make a workable govt of these nonpolitical politicians  Zia opened the national coffers to oblige, rather buy these elected representatives and open horse trading and auctions of elected reps became an acceptable norm. Corruption was successfully installed and elected reps after investing heavily in elections expected returns and returns they got making them pliable to the Generals while discrediting politics. Zia had achieved his goal,

 

It wasn’t always this bad in Pakistan rather Pakistan had a dream start with elections. It took 24 years to hold the first general elections and the results were amazing. Despite repeated derogatory allegations of lack of awareness, Pakistani voters elected the most liberal and progressive parties totally rejecting the extremists and backward looking political parties despite enormous help from the military dominated govt. The 1970 general elections were the only ones in which tribal/baraderi considerations were practically finished. These were the only elections in which young, educated middle class people not belonging to any dominant clan got elected. These results were shocking to the power hungry generals who refused to accept the people’s verdict and broke the country into two. Those times look so far and Zia effectively back rolled this progress.

 

All these tumultuous events on our political horizon maligned the word politics very badly. Honest, hardworking and educated Pakistanis considered politics a dirty profession/pastime which dignified people stayed away from. Unfortunately it doesn’t matter how much anyone avoids politics because it follows everyone affecting all aspect of life. Political parties had specific faces to offer with lack of education and scruples too evident. Grace and dignity was near nonexistent among the political class and in Pakistani parlance politics assumed the meaning of treachery while politician became synonymous of slick. Nonpolitical claimants of power helped in this transition for their own motives. Ultimately politics, the most important aspect of a nation state became absolutely devoid of talented and capable people with values and ethics. Naturally this put Pakistan on a retrogressive course with all the undesirable image possible in the world.

 

In this scenario when Imran Khan jumped into politics he became a target of ridicule for the veterans because he wanted to change the established rules. Resignation, passivity and fatalism were dominant in our society and conventional wisdom dictated that nothing will change here and everything will stay the same. In the 1997 elections most of the political workers belonged to a very certain personality type with certain vocabulary and demeanor. One look of a discerning eye explained what most political workers were looking for and more often that not it was monetary benefit. In addition to greed, strange favors were also expected like help in police cases or approach to influential quarters. If a certain candidate admitted his inability to provide these favors he was ridiculed for his naïveté. This was the political scene of Pakistan laboriously created to ensure crooks entry to assemblies who would be pliable enough. No wonder our assemblies were full of people of very dubious past.

 

All this looks so far away now as everything has changed. The middle classes and the highly educated now form the backbone of political workers class. They have certainly added a more than certain amount of dignity in politics. Average age has also gone down substantially and young, energetic and idealistic workers are seen working tirelessly. Youth, apart from other benefits still harbors some ideals, this society kills so effectively upon facing the reality at later age. These workers are hardly demanding and thanklessly donating themselves or raising money through their own resources.

 

Educated middle classes now make a substantial part of political rallies actively participating in canvassing.

 

The biggest surprise development has been the participation of women in Pakistani politics. Now we see highly educated women of all ages and classes, fully aware politically, attending rallies and actively participating in the political process. The 50% Pakistanis sidelined for too long are enjoying their rights and fulfilling their duties.

 

Whole of South Asia along with Pakistan are suffering from dynastic politics and certain families are considered privileged or loyal classes. PPP, the biggest political party of Pakistan’s leadership transferred on a deceased leader’s will to an underage child making the party look like a personal property. By holding true intraparty elections Imran Khan and PTI has effectively controlled if not outright finished nepotism and dynastic politics. The ticket refusal to cousin and brother in law confirmed the dawn of new era. Other parties who were comfortable with the old dynastic politics are getting pressurized by their workers and would have to hold fair intraparty elections whether they like it or not.

 

After going through turbulent decades and seeing no hope with the system that put them in these problems the educated classes have decided to take their future in their own hands. A crop of pseudo intellectuals had been preaching wait for a messiah to solve their problems but this policy has finally become obsolete. Talented Pakistanis of an earlier generation used to dream about migrating to another country as an escape but that option has become nearly outdated.  They have finally realized it is their life, their country and their future that is at stake and they can’t afford to leave it to politicians of questionable talent, class and scruples. Too much is at stake to avoid it.

 

This is finally putting the mother of all institutions, the political class and politics, in right hands. At last the ill effects of dark Zia era are subsiding. Politics has shed its stigma and is no more a socially unacceptable field. We see educated, successful and polished people in our political horizon. Pakistani women and youth are the most active and enlightened in the Islamic world. Pakistan is getting in right hands heading in the right direction. We have all the reasons to be optimistic about its future.