Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Nawaz Sharif on unprecedented offensive

Dr. Umar Khan
Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.
March 27, 2018

 

Nawaz on unprecedented offensive

“All confrontation is based on deception. Paul Watson”

After the July 28 judgment disqualifying him as Prime Minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif has been relentlessly on the offensive. He is proud of his confrontational skills and honestly believes that his incredible political rise was due to them. This time it is a bit different, he is ruthlessly and brutally charging state institutions, military and judiciary in particular, he has immensely benefitted from in the past, along with his opponents. He cannot be oblivious to the effects this apparently suicidal tirade might bring as no state in the world can afford to let the accused dictate judgments, but he goes on. There must be some method to this apparent madness and a focused look reveals a very well planned but dangerous strategy.

Case against Nawaz Sharif, 3 times PM of Pakistan is simple; he has expensive properties abroad that he can’t justify how he bought while being in power. Due to strange international happenings these got exposed, something everyone knew of but he and his family vehemently denied. At different fora he and his family tried different strategies justifying legitimacy of his sources of income but appeared childish or foolish, to put it mildly, landing him in deeper trouble specially the bungled up Calibri font and the dubious Qatari letter. A court case of having property beyond means now also has perjury and document tampering charges attached too.

In the last two years one thing has been established that Nawaz and family cannot show the sources of income to buy this expensive property clearly suggesting illegitimate means. The timing of purchase suggests commission in mega projects, probably of Pakistan’s first motorway.     

Now that an established politician in power for much of last 37 years with a following is caught red-handed and is out of excuses what can he do? Logically the only options were either to accept mistakes like the Japanese and show repentance, but this is Pakistan and Nawaz did what was expected of him and he went on the offensive against those what he perceived had the power to hold him accountable.

He started with making the judiciary controversial making unending allegations against the judiciary in general and the persona of specific judges in particular. Then as judiciary needs force to implement its judgments, he attacked the greatest force of the state, the armed forces. He effectively imparted a narrative which converted a simple case of politician caught in corruption into a democracy vs  dictatorship calling himself a rebel fighting for the common man. He portrays himself as a victim and a rebel while enjoying the complete hold on power at the provincial and federal levels.

With the help of cleverly planted opinion makers he has substantially succeeded in selling him narrative in Punjab for sure.

We the Punjabis, 60% of Pakistan are an interesting bunch. We label Pakistanis from other provinces traitors and turncoats pretty quickly but respond differently if one of ours does even worse. Somebody defying the state and its law enforcement agencies while enjoying privileges and getting away with it hold a special reverence in our culture, our movies are full of such heroes. It can make an interesting study how Punjab would have reacted had a Mohajir, Sindi or Baloch attacked the state and its institutions the way Nawaz has been doing.

Nawaz Sharif’s main attraction derives from his uncanny ability to attain power. After attaining power he has shown extreme generosity (at public expense) to those loyal to him and harshness for those showing even a trace of disobedience. With long stints in power he has certainly managed a following. So now he is acting like a rebel while audaciously displaying all the privileges of power. He rides in large convoys of expensive cars ostentatiously displaying his wealth and power. Wherever he goes he enjoys something we call in Pakistan as security or protocol but actually a brazen display of state power with many security personal at his service. Even his court attendances are most prodigal full of unnecessary pomp and show instead of expected sobriety. Setting new records of uncouth display of power and wealth he even arranged aerial dropping of flowers on his extravagant motorcades on way to address the downtrodden. Being in opposition while enjoying absolute power is one of his inventions.

By this defiance Nawaz appears to be aiming for,
  • A nervous mistake by the establishment or the state apparatus mistake in the corruption case and he takes advantage of. Conviction on a lesser charge like contempt would be his success whereas reactionary military takeover an absolute bonanza.
  • Workup international pressure to force establishment bow down and let him go.
  • Scare the state of his street power and negotiate some sort of compromise and win an NRO.

There is nothing irrational about Nawaz hoping to get away again this time as he has done many times earlier. He has gotten away with judgments of judiciary bordering on ridiculous including some not very long ago.

Despite rationality and cleverness his luck seems to be abandoning him this time, after 37 years of exceptional support. Establishment didn’t take his bait and called his bluff. He has kept his party and support intact by going on the offensive but can’t prolong it forever. He did manage to convince many that he is still relevant and his support would bring benefits but that seems to be ending, along with his support after he finally loses his grip on power, something that seems inevitable.

Nawaz has gotten into a quagmire, going further down the much he struggles. He is fast losing the enormous influence he had carefully cultivated and accumulated in media, bureaucracy, judiciary and many other places over the decades.

The state apparatus has refused to react to his provocations and Nawaz’s future appears doomed. Criminal cases against him are proceeding and he should soon be convicted. His confrontational tone has started changing but appears too little too late. The much noise he created leaves him no options but to prevail absolutely or otherwise, as no one can steamroll the judiciary and the establishment. His old popular clichés like, I was always a front foot player, all my achievements are due to my confrontational abilities and the “either I will stay or he will” have stopped working.

The only practical option Nawaz has is to accept reality and stop manipulation attempts. It is about time he gets honest with people putting the record straight clearly stating what he has been doing for the last 37 years and how he accumulated billions while being in power. He owes it to 210M people to expose how corruption works and ways to curb it in future, who can know these dynamics better than Nawaz. Exposing the dynamics of power and the state functionaries he bribed during his rise would also be helpful.

Pakistanis are very forgiving and magnanimous people and might not only forgive him but embrace him. He is already 70 yrs old with medical conditions and his personal needs won’t be affected by his confessions.

This is the minimum he owes to the 200M who gave him so much honor and love.

However if he insists on his way hoping to get away with everything, we know where he is heading.