Dr. Umar Khan
Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.
21-1-25
Master stroke gone sour
In 1981 when Pakistan was reeling under Gen Zia’s martial
law, a youngster from Lahore crept in the government silently and
surreptitiously. This young man Nawaz Sharif, despite a few hiccups remained
the most relevant in Pakistani politics till the 2020s with 3 stints as the
Prime Minister of the country. This kind of longevity and resilience was
unheard of among the Pakistani politicians. Interestingly he was able to
achieve all this despite his weaknesses in intellect, and public speaking
ability. This extraordinary achievement speaks volumes about his exceptional
maneuvering and manipulative skills.
His intellect might have been limited but he understood the
power dynamics in Pakistan well and played political games splendidly. This is
an advantage people with limited vision enjoy and little distractions,
strengthening the claim that this world belongs to mediocres.
He rightly realized that military is the most powerful
player in Pakistani politics and cultivated his relations with military high
ups carefully using all known and some undeclared tactics including ingenious
ways of bribing.
Secondly he appreciated the judiciary’s importance in
Pakistani politics and used it effectively using the time tested carrot stick
formula. He invested in planting and influencing judges and the elected bodies
of lawyers judiciously.
Then there are other smaller power factors where he
cultivated his influence effectively like bureaucracy and business community
along with others.
In addition to the above, his most important tool was his
influence in the media and its manipulation creating friendly narratives, he
became the master of political narrative that allowed him to get away with
anything.
In the eighties the mass media in Pakistan composed of just
a few newspapers, with opinion writers numbering in single digits, and a
government controlled TV channel. Media workers in those days were highly deprived
making influencing and buying them easy for someone in a position to dole out
benefits and privileges and he was able to do it effectively. BB was his main adversary
then who wasn’t aware of these street smart tricks making her unable to handle
the media effectively and he ridiculed, abused and drubbed her viciously.
It was Nawaz Sharif’s control of narrative building and agenda
setting that brought him this amazing political success. In this tirade his unscrupulousness
and ruthlessness were his chief assets. This allowed him to portray himself as
a victim of judiciary despite being the biggest beneficiary of its weaknesses
over the years, a symbol of civil supremacy despite being the biggest
beneficiary of military’s interference in politics, proponent of decent
politics despite the opposite and many others. These successes in his hold on
narrative building made him confident to get away with anything like he used
to.
After getting on the wrong side of establishment after his
third stint as PM, he again cut a deal with the military and landed in the comfort
of his lavish residence in the most expensive part of London riding
ostentatious cars. He was at home.
Being a master manipulator as he always was, he didn’t waste
any time and slowly starting making inroads in the international circles effective
in Pakistan and planting his men at the important posts.
To begin with he toured US many times and cultivated
relations with the lobbyists and influential people.
He cut a deal with Bajwa the army chief and got Imran removed
as the PM installing his brother Shehbaz in his place. This started an open war
between the powerful army generals and PTI that he and his party conveniently
inflamed. Along with this, he got his nephew installed as the CM of the largest
province, a position later taken by his daughter. Nawaz’s maneuverings were so
effective that Maryam Nawaz boasted of his father prevailing in Pakistani politics
despite sitting thousands of miles away.
After getting his political opponents displaced and brutally
thrashed he was not done. With the power of PM his brother had, he interviewed
and dealt with aspiring generals while sitting in London for the post of
Pakistan’s new army chief. As a hard bargainer, he cut a very favorable deal
with one of them promising more of flogging of his opponents and ultimately
PTIs dismemberment and complete annihilation. This started immediately after
the new army chief took over. Whenever the new army chief slacked in oppressing
the PTI, Maryam Nawaz reminded him and nearly reprimanded him ensuring another
bout of repression. There are stories without proofs about techniques used to
ensure that their appointed army chief sticks to his commitments regarding the
tyranny to be unleashed on PTI.
This control of the army chief brought influence in the US, media,
intelligence agencies and the bureaucracy too, specially the election
commission.
All these controls weren’t enough for the master manipulator
and he didn’t return despite PTI being in tatters. He wanted his complete hold
over the judiciary with CJ of his liking who shared love for London properties
with him along with his hatred for the PTI. And he got Qazi Faez Issa as the CJ
of Pakistan.
All the important posts occupied by his supporters and
beneficiaries Nawaz finally decided to return in October 2023. The world saw a
miracle where a convict returned as a conqueror with his handpicked army chief,
CJ, government and everyone in important place. He got a hero’s welcome with judiciary
coming to airport to absolve him. The elections had been postponed for him
trampling the constitution as he was bigger than everything. His opponents were
bullied and effectively ousted from the political scene.
The fabulous master plan of a master manipulator was in
place and nothing was to stop him from coming to power for the fourth time with
huge margins.
While planning these maneuverings 2 important points were
missed. First his opponent IK was underestimated as a typical weak Pakistani
politician who was expected to breakdown and submit, but he stood strong and
tough taking all the abuse with dignity and grace. The second point was that
with all these advantages Nawaz was unable to create narratives discrediting
the opponents and glamourizing himself like he used to do earlier. It didn’t
work this time and whatever tricks he played backfired, increasing the
popularity and strength of his opponents. It kept on happening until Nawaz, who
used to be the most popular political leader, became a near irrelevant political
figure.
The February 2024 elections heavily favoring Nawaz and his
party brought out a deluge of support for PTI and the N League got decimated.
The outright, blatant and disparaging help kept the N League and Nawaz afloat
but at a cost; absolute political and moral demise. Unpopular politicians
brought to power through unfair means lose importance and have to comply to
instructions of their protectors, generals in this case. A pathetic situation
for any politician.
It is interesting but also sobering to realize how at times
one’s biggest achievements turn into disasters, how difficult it is to predict
what nature has in store for the people, how apparently bad decisions turnout
to be beneficial and otherwise.
N League must keep in mind that no matter how bad the
situation it can be made worse. Corrections must be made and an effective
political narrative established close to people’s hearts that voters would like
to associate with. The old fashioned negatives
have to be abandoned and positives strengthened to bring life back as the N
League still has some decent people although many are considering jumping.
Pakistan like any country, can’t afford a larger than life
political leader getting the stature Imran has achieved. After all he is also a
human so let’s revamp the second largest political party..
Man proposes, God disposes
