Dr. Umar Khan
Dr. Khan belongs to a Lahore based Think Tank.
March 27,
2018
Nawaz on unprecedented offensive
“All confrontation is based on deception. Paul Watson”
After the July 28 judgment disqualifying him as Prime
Minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif has been relentlessly on the offensive. He is proud
of his confrontational skills and honestly believes that his incredible political
rise was due to them. This time it is a bit different, he is ruthlessly and
brutally charging state institutions, military and judiciary in particular, he
has immensely benefitted from in the past, along with his opponents. He cannot
be oblivious to the effects this apparently suicidal tirade might bring as no
state in the world can afford to let the accused dictate judgments, but he goes
on. There must be some method to this apparent madness and a focused look
reveals a very well planned but dangerous strategy.
Case against Nawaz Sharif, 3 times PM of Pakistan is simple;
he has expensive properties abroad that he can’t justify how he bought while
being in power. Due to strange international happenings these got exposed,
something everyone knew of but he and his family vehemently denied. At
different fora he and his family tried different strategies justifying
legitimacy of his sources of income but appeared childish or foolish, to put it
mildly, landing him in deeper trouble specially the bungled up Calibri font and
the dubious Qatari letter. A court case of having property beyond means now
also has perjury and document tampering charges attached too.
In the last two years one thing has been established that
Nawaz and family cannot show the sources of income to buy this expensive
property clearly suggesting illegitimate means. The timing of purchase suggests
commission in mega projects, probably of Pakistan’s first motorway.
Now that an established politician in power for much of last
37 years with a following is caught red-handed and is out of excuses what can
he do? Logically the only options were either to accept mistakes like the
Japanese and show repentance, but this is Pakistan and Nawaz did what was
expected of him and he went on the offensive against those what he perceived
had the power to hold him accountable.
He started with making the judiciary controversial making
unending allegations against the judiciary in general and the persona of
specific judges in particular. Then as judiciary needs force to implement its judgments,
he attacked the greatest force of the state, the armed forces. He effectively
imparted a narrative which converted a simple case of politician caught in
corruption into a democracy vs
dictatorship calling himself a rebel fighting for the common man. He
portrays himself as a victim and a rebel while enjoying the complete hold on
power at the provincial and federal levels.
With the help of cleverly planted opinion makers he has
substantially succeeded in selling him narrative in Punjab for sure.
We the Punjabis, 60% of Pakistan are an interesting bunch.
We label Pakistanis from other provinces traitors and turncoats pretty quickly
but respond differently if one of ours does even worse. Somebody defying the
state and its law enforcement agencies while enjoying privileges and getting
away with it hold a special reverence in our culture, our movies are full of
such heroes. It can make an interesting study how Punjab would have reacted had
a Mohajir, Sindi or Baloch attacked the state and its institutions the way
Nawaz has been doing.
Nawaz Sharif’s main attraction derives from his uncanny
ability to attain power. After attaining power he has shown extreme generosity
(at public expense) to those loyal to him and harshness for those showing even
a trace of disobedience. With long stints in power he has certainly managed a
following. So now he is acting like a rebel while audaciously displaying all
the privileges of power. He rides in large convoys of expensive cars ostentatiously
displaying his wealth and power. Wherever he goes he enjoys something we call
in Pakistan as security or protocol but actually a brazen display of state
power with many security personal at his service. Even his court attendances
are most prodigal full of unnecessary pomp and show instead of expected
sobriety. Setting new records of uncouth display of power and wealth he even
arranged aerial dropping of flowers on his extravagant motorcades on way to
address the downtrodden. Being in opposition while enjoying absolute power is
one of his inventions.
By this defiance Nawaz appears to be aiming for,
- A nervous mistake by the establishment
or the state apparatus mistake in the corruption case and he takes
advantage of. Conviction on a lesser charge like contempt would be his
success whereas reactionary military takeover an absolute bonanza.
- Workup international
pressure to force establishment bow down and let him go.
- Scare the state of his
street power and negotiate some sort of compromise and win an NRO.
There is nothing irrational about Nawaz hoping to get away
again this time as he has done many times earlier. He has gotten away with judgments
of judiciary bordering on ridiculous including some not very long ago.
Despite rationality and cleverness his luck seems to be
abandoning him this time, after 37 years of exceptional support. Establishment
didn’t take his bait and called his bluff. He has kept his party and support
intact by going on the offensive but can’t prolong it forever. He did manage to
convince many that he is still relevant and his support would bring benefits
but that seems to be ending, along with his support after he finally loses his
grip on power, something that seems inevitable.
Nawaz has gotten into a quagmire, going further down the
much he struggles. He is fast losing the enormous influence he had carefully
cultivated and accumulated in media, bureaucracy, judiciary and many other
places over the decades.
The state apparatus has refused to react to his provocations
and Nawaz’s future appears doomed. Criminal cases against him are proceeding
and he should soon be convicted. His confrontational tone has started changing
but appears too little too late. The much noise he created leaves him no
options but to prevail absolutely or otherwise, as no one can steamroll the
judiciary and the establishment. His old popular clichés like, I was always a
front foot player, all my achievements are due to my confrontational abilities
and the “either I will stay or he will” have stopped working.
The only practical option Nawaz has is to accept reality and
stop manipulation attempts. It is about time he gets honest with people putting
the record straight clearly stating what he has been doing for the last 37
years and how he accumulated billions while being in power. He owes it to 210M
people to expose how corruption works and ways to curb it in future, who can
know these dynamics better than Nawaz. Exposing the dynamics of power and the
state functionaries he bribed during his rise would also be helpful.
Pakistanis are very forgiving and magnanimous people and
might not only forgive him but embrace him. He is already 70 yrs old with medical
conditions and his personal needs won’t be affected by his confessions.
This is the minimum he owes to the 200M who gave him so much
honor and love.
However if he insists on his way hoping to get away with
everything, we know where he is heading.
